COVID is creeping back up in Tennessee. From positivity rates to hospitalizations — the numbers are heading in the wrong direction. But a major surge isn’t expected.

This is not a new variant, but rather a new round of slightly mutated omicron (dubbed stealth omicron).

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, says the vast number of people who’ve had omicron recently should be pretty protected, especially if they’re fully vaccinated. So it’s unlikely COVID counts soar anywhere close to the peaks earlier this year.

“I don’t think we’ll reach those heights, so that’s the good news,” he says. “The more sobering news is the virus is not going away, and we are now still learning how to cope with it as it’s in this endemic phase, smoldering around us.”

Courtesy TDH

Tennessee Department of Health data shows three distinct peaks since the pandemic began.

Tennessee is seeing roughly 1,300 new cases per day, though this is an undercount given the prevalence of rapid home testing that isn’t reported to the state. Positivity rates, which indicate disease prevalence, are back in double digits, which has been used as the threshold for concern. Statewide hospitalizations are now at 290 statewide — double the low point a month ago but roughly the same as two month ago.

Right now, those who are at high risk of complications — like people with diabetes or who are considered medically obese — should be more careful, Schaffner says. And even those who’ve grown comfortable without masks in crowds may need to consider wearing them again, he adds. This week, VUMC, the region’s largest private employer, reinstated a mask requirement in all indoor public areas.

“We’re trying to develop a truce with this virus,” Schaffner says. “And we’re still figuring out how to do that.”