Tennessee’s 7th congressional district has been solidly Republican for decades.
Since the statehouse redrew District 7 to include parts of downtown and West Nashville in 2022, incumbent Republican Mark Green has had no trouble holding onto his seat, which now stretches from Clarksville to Wayne County near the Alabama border. Green handily fended off a challenge from former Nashville mayor Megan Barry just last year. But his surprise retirement in July could present an opportunity for Democrats.
The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter, first listed the 7th congressional district as “solidly Republican,” but has now shifted that rating to “likely Republican.” Polling still puts Republican candidate Matt Van Epps ahead of Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn for the seat, but the gap may be narrower than expected.
Already, Democrats have had some major wins in other special elections this year. Pollsters underestimated the blue wave, said John Geer, Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University and co-director of the Vanderbilt Poll.
“Does that trend continue to eat into some of the lead the Republicans have? Yeah, it almost surely will. Is it going to be enough to flip it to the Democrats is the big question,” Geer said. “That’s going to take a huge amount of turnout.”
Green’s 22-point victory also came during a presidential election year, which typically has higher turnout than both mid-terms and special elections. Low turnout, in this case, could help the Democratic side, whose voters are more motivated to go to the polls.
Tennessee GOP Chair Scott Golden told WPLN News that his party also has its eye on turnout.
“Anytime you have a special election that is bracketed by the Thanksgiving holiday, you can’t afford to take a day off,” Golden said. “I think if there’s concern, it’s just that people aren’t aware that they have the opportunity to vote right now.”
Democratic strongholds like Nashville have multiple polling locations for both early voting, which runs through Nov. 26, and Election Day on Dec. 2. In some rural areas, there may only be one place to vote for the whole county.
While turnout will be one of the biggest deciders of the race, Geer is looking for a few other indicators of how competitive the election may be.
“Is Van Epps all of a sudden going on the attack on Behn? Do they agree to debate? [Are] the national committees now pouring money into both campaigns?” Geer said.
In a recent campaign ad, Van Epps aired footage of Behn opposing ICE raids on Nashville’s immigration corridor this summer. The ad calls her a “woke liberal,” saying, “when she wins, we lose.”
The Democratic National Committee has invested money in the race, in line with a shift to focus more on elections at the state level. The Republican National Committee has also made “six-figure” contributions to back their candidate.
Both DNC Chair Ken Martin and RNC Chair Joe Gruters have knocked on doors in the district. Martin told WPLN News that the recent Democratic wins are because his party has focused on affordability issues.
“Clearly, there was a message that folks are quite frustrated with what’s happening in this country right now,” Martin said. “Most families in this country are struggling and suffering even more under this administration because of the reckless tariff policies.”
In campaign materials, Van Epps has shifted focus to affordability, something that’s long been a pillar of Democratic campaigns.
The cost of housing and healthcare was top of mind for the majority of voters who spoke with WPLN News at the polls.
“Whether you’re a Democrat, Republican or independent, affordability is the issue, and you need to speak to it,” Geer said. “Prices are rising despite what the president claims. That’s a concern, and Van Epps reflects that. So, he’s not trying to tie himself to Trump, which tells me his own internals are such that he needs to run a campaign that, you know, represents concerns the voters have and not try to just be the Trump candidate.”
As a state lawmaker, one of Behn’s signature proposals was to end Tennessee’s grocery tax, which is one of the highest in the nation at 4%. Behn’s plan would’ve shifted that tax to corporations based on their revenue. The measure died in Tennessee’s Republican supermajority.
Geer said Van Epps hasn’t inspired much excitement from within his own party, a sentiment echoed by Tennessee Rep. Jody Barrett, R-Dickson, who came in second in the Republican primary.
“I think [Behn is] going to have an easier time … getting the mainstream of her party to come behind her. The opposite is true for the Republicans. You know that Matt Van Epps was more of the establishment-backed candidate,” Barrett said. “The other thing is do not overlook the independents that are in this race.”
Polling by the group Impact Research found that if the general election is in line with the primary’s turnout, Van Epps will lead Behn by 8 points. Researchers also found that gap could be within three points if independent candidate Jon Thorp is able to draw Republican voters away from Van Epps.
Name recognition will also be big in a race with such a short runway, but Geer said neither candidate is well known.
Some voters who cast a ballot for Behn on the first day of early voting didn’t know her name or her gender. But voter Abraham Garcia Ortega said he became familiar with Behn through social media before she became a lawmaker.
“I remember the day when she got arrested in Capitol Hill because of protesting for her rights,” Garcia Ortega said. “She’s going to do an amazing job for us.”
Early voting runs through Wednesday, Nov. 26. Election Day is Dec. 2.
Correction: This story previously said that the Cook Political Report’s new rating for District 7 is “leans Republican.” The district’s new rating is “likely Republican.”
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