NES Electric Vehicle Forecasters Include Political Affiliation in Predictions

Nashville Electric Service needs to know who might buy an electric car in the next few years as Nissan and Chevy bring plug-in vehicles to market. Charging the batteries pulls so much power from the grid that more than a couple on one street can overload an old transformer.

To stay ahead of the electric cars, NES has been doing some forecasting to see where potential owners live. The first consideration is money. But with the limited range of fully battery-powered cars, owners also have to live relatively close to where they work.

Stephanie Fornabaio was part of a team of engineering students from Vanderbilt University who put together a predictive map for NES. She says political affiliation is also a consideration.

“We were pretty convinced that Democrats would be more likely to purchase EV’s than Republicans. But then we looked into it further and found that maybe independents were more likely than Democrats and Republicans to purchase an electric vehicle.”

Using a survey about hybrid car ownership and interviewing potential plug-in buyers, the group decided Democrats and Independents are equally likely to go electric.

Voter rolls and census data were combined to make the forecasts. And according to a color-coded map, Green Hills will be one of the hottest spots for electric vehicles.

NES has to figure out if already demand-heavy parts of town can handle a few dozen cars plugging in overnight.

The problem becomes something utilities call “clustering.”

Fornabaio says a handful of electric cars on one block can overload an old transformer.

“If you have a couple of people on one street that buy an electric vehicles, what’s the chain effect? Is the rest of the street going to also purchase electric vehicles? And that’s the future draw that NES needs to be concerned with.”

As for Middle Tennessee Electric, which serves Williamson and Rutherford counties, a spokesman says the utility isn’t worried about the clustering issue, at least for the next few years.

This map of Davidson County shows anticipated hot spots for electric vehicle owners.

*An original version of this story says drivers license data was used. We regret the error.