New Vanderbilt Projection Suggests Tennessee’s COVID-19 Response Is Working

The latest report from Vanderbilt’s Department of Health Policy brings optimism to the state’s response to the coronavirus.

A previous report showed for every positive case in Tennessee, another 1.4 people were infected. That number has since declined to 1 during the past week, suggesting that state-wide social distancing measures are working.

The transmission number needs to fall below 1 to slow the pandemic.

“We know that those factors change quickly, so it could go back up. … We’re going to keep an eye on it. But between last week and this week it did drop down,” says Melissa McPheeters, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt.

This could be good news for Tennessee leaders, as Gov. Bill Lee expressed an interest in reopening the state’s economy in May. But while there have been improvements, McPheeters says the state is not yet in the clear. Health experts say there needs to be a 14-day decline in cases to get an accurate measurement of where local governments stand in combatting the outbreak.

“We’re moving in a good direction, and it’s very positive,” says McPheeters.

The report suggests that Tennessee’s healthcare system won’t become overwhelmed with hospitalizations, as long as the transmission number doesn’t increase.

As of Wednesday, the Tennessee Department of Health has identified 6,262 cases of COVID-19, including 2,786 recoveries, 691 hospitalizations and 141 fatalities.