Railroad workers look ready to strike by the end of this week when a 60-day negotiation session ends. President Biden delayed a rail strike through executive action back in July, but trains may be forced to grind to a halt if a compromise can’t be reached by the end of the “cooling off” period. 

The unions representing engineers and conductors remain at an impasse with rail companies, and unless a deal is struck by 12:01a.m. ET Friday, the first railroad strike in 30 years appears likely.

A strike would have serious impacts for a state like Tennessee, which is a “through” state for freight traffic. Every year, 41.3 million tons of freight have origins or destinations across Tennessee.  

Turning to trucks 

A pause in rail movement would not only have reverberations across the nationwide supply chain but would leave Nashvillians to face some of the impacts.

The cargo moving through Tennessee is largely made up of chemicals, glass, stone, food products, pulp and paper, which, in the absence of trains, would require trucks for transportation. 

Max Baker is the director of research and analytics for the Greater Nashville Regional Council, the agency that leads the way on Middle Tennessee’s federally funded transportation projects. He says a rail strike would mean serious reliance on trucks. 

“When any of those other modes fails, it has to go to the roadway, and so that adds to increased volumes. It is increased wear and tear on the infrastructure, on our bridges, on our highways. And, you know, more large vehicles in the same travel lanes as passenger vehicles tend to have more severe crash results,” Baker says.

Our region is already experiencing higher-than-usual truck crashes — with 2,718 collisions recorded in 2022 so far. That’s nearly 200 more than those recorded this time last year and would only be further exacerbated by additional trucks on highways.

On top of the risk comes the cost. The additional use of taxpayer-funded highway infrastructure could lead to quicker deterioration, which would require additional taxpayer revenue to repair. And, transportation by truck comes at a price. 

“It’s substantially cheaper to move things via rail,” Baker says. “And if all of those are moving to truck, a more expensive mode to utilize, it’s going to get passed on to the customer.”

On average, railroads can move one ton of freight 470 miles on one gallon of fuel. It would take several hundred trucks to transport the entirety of one train, incurring significantly higher fuel costs. Baker says that we can expect to see the price of goods increase to reflect the increase in transportation costs.

The strike itself has less to do with costs than it does with non-pay issues, like staffing shortages and work schedules. However, if an agreement isn’t reached by Friday, it looks like Nashvillians may need to brace for higher costs and higher risks. 

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the name of Max Baker’s organization. It is the Greater Nashville Regional Council, not the Metropolitan Planning Organization.