Republicans held onto a reliably conservative U.S. House district in Tennessee’s special election, but only after a late burst of national spending and high-profile campaigning helped them secure a margin less than half of last year’s race.
Even with that victory, the outcome contributed to a gloomy outlook for the party going into the 2026 contests that will determine control of Congress.
Republicans will need to defend much more vulnerable seats if they have any hope of keeping their House majority, while Democrats are capitalizing on President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and the public’s persistent frustration with the economy.
“This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans,” Matt Whitlock, a Republican strategist, wrote on social media. If there were similar numbers across the country next year, “we would be looking at a blue wave far worse than 2018.”
Republican Matt Van Epps, a military veteran and former state general services commissioner, defeated Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn by 9 percentage points on Tuesday for the seat vacated by Republican Mark Green, who retired over the summer. Green had won reelection in 2024 by 21 percentage points.
Special elections provide a limited window into the mood of voters and take place under far different conditions than regular campaign cycles. But some Republicans are acknowledging the warning signs, especially after Democrats had convincing victories in New Jersey, Virginia and elsewhere last month.
Tennessee was the fifth House special election this year, and Democratic candidates have outperformed Kamala Harris’ showing in the 2024 presidential race by an average of 16 percentage points in the same districts.
“We could have lost this district,” U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, told Fox News after The Associated Press called the race for Van Epps. Cruz said his party must “set out the alarm bells” because next year is “going to be a turnout election and the left will show up.”
Trump dismisses affordability concerns
Although inflation has dropped since Democrat President Joe Biden was in office, Behn focused her campaign on the lingering concerns about prices.
Trump has played down the affordability the issue, saying during a Cabinet meeting Tuesday that it was “a con job” by his political opponents.
“There’s this fake narrative that the Democrats talk about, affordability,” he said. “They just say the word. It doesn’t mean anything to anybody, they just say it.”
Maintaining House control is crucial for Trump, who fears a repeat of his first term, when Democrats flipped the House and launched an impeachment inquiry.
The Republican president has been leaning on GOP-led states to redraw congressional maps to improve the party’s chances.
Trump campaigned for Van Epps, boosting him during the primary with an endorsement and participating in two tele-rallies during the general election.
The Republican National Committee also deployed staffers and partnered with state officials to get voters to the polls. MAGA Inc., the super political action committee that had gone dark since supporting Trump in 2024, reemerged to back Van Epps with about $1.7 million.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., visited the Nashville-area district on Monday.
“When you’re in a deep red district, sometimes people assume that the Republican, the conservative will win,” he said Tuesday. “And you cannot assume that, because anything can happen.”
Chip Saltsman, a political strategist and former Tennessee Republican Party chair, said his party had brought in its heaviest hitters simply because there were not other competing contests, not because Republicans feared a loss.
“It’s the only election going on. Why wouldn’t the speaker come?” he asked. “There was one race. and you would expect everybody to do everything they could.”
Democrats see promise despite loss
The House Majority PAC put $1 million behind Behn. After she lost, Democratic national party chair said Behn’s performance was “a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms” in 2026.
Behn said her campaign had “inspired an entire country.”
“Let’s keep going,” she urged voters after her loss. “We’re not done. Not now, not ever.”
Although Democrats were optimistic, the result contributed to some murmuring within the party about the best path forward as it grasps for a path back to power in Washington.
Among special elections this year, the shift in Behn’s direction was the second smallest, providing an opening for some factions that believe more moderate candidates would fare better.
“Each time we nominate a far-left candidate in a swing district who declares themselves to be radical and alienates the voters in the middle who deliver majorities, we set back that cause,” said a statement from Lanae Erickson, a senior vice president at Third Way, a centrist Democrat think tank.
Republicans tried to turn Behn’s own words against her in television ads, such as when she described herself as a “radical” or claimed to be “bullying” immigration agents and state police officers. Also cited were comments Behn made about Nashville years ago, when she said, “I hate this city,” and complained about bachelorette parties.
Several high-profile progressive leaders, including U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., had rallied for Behn in the campaign’s final days.
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