Tennessee in drought for the third consecutive summer — making flash flooding more likely

Tennessee is in widespread drought for the third consecutive year.

On Thursday, about 85% of the state was in moderate drought, and more than a third of the state was in “severe” drought, which can translate to poor air quality, aquatic organism deaths, low creeks and poor water quality.

Droughts can also increase the risk of flash floods: After soil dries up, the ground hardens, making runoff more likely during heavy rain events.

Parts of the state could be at risk of flash flooding this weekend. The National Weather Service forecasted two to five inches of rainfall in some areas of Middle and West Tennessee.

Statewide, this is the driest summer since 2007, which was the driest summer since the start of the US Drought Monitor in 2000, according to state climatologist Andrew Joyner.

More: Droughts will worsen in Tennessee. The state lacks a real plan, a new report finds

Tennessee faced drought the past three summers. In 2022 and 2023, the state also had significant droughts in the fall. In November 2022, dry conditions covered 98% of land in the state at its peak. Last year, the fall drought spilled into the winter and early spring this year.

Prior to this pattern of drought, Tennessee recorded three of the five wettest years since 1895 in the years 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Some parts of the state may see relief from the drought after the rains this weekend. Some stream levels could rise and improve dissolved oxygen levels for aquatic life.

But if the dry pattern continues, the relief will be temporary and the drought may expand, Joyner said.