Nearly half of Tennessee is in severe drought, including some of Middle Tennessee. The city of Franklin recently asked citizens to voluntarily reduce water consumption, and some cities have issued burn bans.

Nashville is in a stage of moderate drought, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, which shows dry conditions across the entire state. 

Courtesy Tennessee Climate Office

Most of Tennessee is in moderate or severe drought. The state is experiencing the largest area of “D3” drought since 2016.

The dryness is technically a “flash drought,” a term for droughts that develop within weeks or months and usually involve higher-than-average temperatures. 

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Nashville had 0.3 inches of rain in October, as of Sunday, and the monthly average temperature was a few degrees warmer than normal. The city reached 87 degrees on Saturday, breaking the daily heat record by four degrees, according to the National Weather Service. 

Flash droughts are becoming more common

Water constantly cycles between land and the atmosphere. A key component that affects drought is evapotranspiration, the processes of water evaporating from soil and plants transpiring water into the atmosphere. 

Flash droughts have been speeding up as the planet warms due to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and animal agriculture. The phenomenon is happening across most of the planet, according to a study published in Science earlier this year.  

“The transition is associated with amplified anomalies of evapotranspiration and precipitation deficit caused by anthropogenic climate change,” the study says.

Flash droughts can increase wildfire risks, cause public water supply shortages and reduce stream flow.

Tennessee does not have an operational plan to respond to droughts, a report funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found last year.  

To end the current drought, cities will have to get rainfall capable of soaking the ground. Light or moderate rains usually provide temporary cosmetic relief, while thunderstorms often dump quick, heavy rains that are likely to run off. 

The National Weather Service forecasted less than half an inch of rain in Nashville on Monday.

Courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Most of Tennessee is not expected to get enough rain to end the drought this week.