A transit tax could help Nashville access over a billion federal dollars. Will voters think that’s worth it?

One major promise of Nashville’s transit referendum is that it will make the city eligible for billions of dollars in federal funding.

The ballot measure will ask voters this November to approve a sales tax increase to fund a major transportation overhaul. Nashville has already been applying for federal dollars for years, but the city thinks a new tax — which would generate consistent transportation dollars every year — could improve its success rate.

There’s a lot at stake — the referendum includes improvements like 86 miles of new sidewalks, increased bus service, new signals, some bus-only lanes, a dozen new transit centers and other proposals.

The plight of Nashville’s transit centers — and the promise of new ones — offers one glimpse into the challenge of obtaining federal transit dollars.

These transit hubs, where many bus routes converge, allow riders to travel to their destination without detouring through downtown. They are often outfitted with spacious waiting rooms, air-conditioning and Wi-Fi.

For decades, Nashville only had one — the downtown Elizabeth Duff Transit Center at WeGo Central. Now, the city is slowly moving toward its third — the Dr. Ernest Rip Patton Jr. North Nashville Transit Center.

WeGo had hoped to start this North Nashville project years ago, applying for federal support back in 2019. But its application for the $10.7 million BUILD Transportation grant was rejected.

According to WeGo’s Director of Planning, Felix Castrodad, this rejection left WeGo scrambling to find other support.

“When they don’t fund you, everything or anything, you’re kind of like, ‘OK, so back to square one,’ ” Castrodad said.

Eventually, WeGo was able to secure dollars from the Tennessee Department of Transportation, as well as limited federal funds for public engagement around the project. It’s now expected to open in the next few months, after facing recent construction delays.

But, Castrodad said, it all could have happened faster had Nashville established a local funding source.

“They’re looking for skin in the game. So, if you do not have that, your battle is very uphill,” he said. “Because there’s a lot of other systems and agencies that have that. So basically, you’re not even entering the field at a competitive level from the get-go.”

Nashville hasn’t faced total rejection from the Federal Transit Agency — just this month, the city won a $10 million grant to make substantial improvements to its Donelson Station commuter rail line, and, late last year, Nolensville Pike was the recipient of $13 million for a transportation safety project.

But without a dedicated funding source applications for large projects can falter. Typically, the federal government expects a local match — meaning, the city would fund around 20% of a project — and then covers the rest. But, according to the mayor’s Director of Transportation Planning Michael Briggs, if the local government is without the dollars to do so, it’s not able to compete.

“We can’t even put, really, our name in the hat at this point, because we don’t have the ability to say we can deliver a project over several years when we do budgeting kind of year-to-year,” Briggs said.

As it stands, Nashville doesn’t have a reliable purse for that 20%.

That’s where the transit referendum comes in. It’s asking Nashvillians to consider a half-cent sales tax increase to fund its list of projects. Those projects are estimated to cost $3.1 billion over the course of 15 years.

But the cost wouldn’t weigh entirely on the sales tax surcharge. It would also be supported by fares, bonds, state programs and, significantly, federal grants. The administration estimates the grants could account for $1.4 billion, or more than one-third.

Those aren’t guaranteed dollars — like in the case of the North Nashville transit center, Metro would have to apply — but Castrodad said the number is conservative.

“There’s a good chance that if you build these projects correctly, that level of investment from the federal government can go up,” he said.

However, time is ticking. Many of these funds are allocated through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which is set to expire in 2026.

Briggs says, without these dollars, radically changing Nashville’s transit will be difficult.

“If we’re doing stuff that’s all kind of locally done and funded at 100%, you’re doing very like small-scale projects that cost a lot still at the end of the day.”

Federal dollars could be the difference between the delayed opening of one transit center — or the creation of 12 new ones. That’s a question voters will face this November, as they decide whether to approve the transit sales tax and its slate of projects.