One of Tennessee’s two congressional districts that has been a Democratic stronghold is now heavily gerrymandered in favor of Republicans.
Even so, Democratic candidate Heidi Campbell believes she can win the District 5 race. That means she’d have to defeat Republican Andy Ogles, who has received more support from political action committees. But the advantage in this race might be less about money and more about the issue of abortion.
A majority of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, according to a Pew Research Center study. And a majority of voters list it as a top issue this election cycle.
In many Republican-led states, like Tennessee, the procedure is now banned with no exceptions.
District 5 Republican candidate Andy Ogles, the former mayor of Maury County, supports the abortion ban. He dismissed the need for exceptions in a recent interview with WKRN-TV in Nashville.
“Statistically, those are not even part of the conversation,” Ogles said. “That’s a red herring used by the left and radicals to try and taint the conversation.”
His opponent, state Sen. Heidi Campbell, has been vocal about adding exceptions to the state’s abortion law.
“I’m running with Bob Freeman a bill that includes exceptions for incest and rape,” Campbell said. “But we’re also running clear exceptions to save a woman’s life or well-being, exceptions for minors, exceptions for sex trafficking and to repeal any criminal statutes that would be basically codifying Roe.”
The issue has moved so near to the forefront that it could swing some midterm elections, says University of Tennessee political science professor Richard Pacelle.
“Overturning Roe v. Wade has given the Democrats a surge — surge in registration and surge in money,” said Pacelle.
In Tennessee, voter registration numbers have been higher since Roe v. Wade was overturned June 24. Between that time and the end of August, more than 58,000 people registered to vote in Tennessee — making up a third of all new voter registrations since the beginning of the year.
Of that, the majority are women. And while voters don’t register with a party in Tennessee, historically women are more likely to vote for a Democrat.
But this district is expected to go to Republicans, according to some political analysts. J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics points to the last presidential election to show just how much of an advantage Tennessee Republicans have.
“The new 5th — instead of going to Biden by 20 points — it goes to Trump by 11 or 10,” Coleman said.
But that isn’t stopping Heidi Campbell. She spoke to guests during a private meet and greet in Antioch in September.
“This campaign is about love, and we are at a weird time where we’re actually in a situation where we kind of have love versus fear,” Campbell said.
Campbell’s running on common Democrat talking points: more funding for public schools, reasonable gun control and holding corporations accountable.
And her opponent Ogles is running on conservative Republican talking points.
“I’ve been very outspoken on immigration. Build the wall. Secure the border. Under no circumstances, no amnesty,” Ogles said during his appearance on conservative streaming news channel Real America’s Voice with John Fredericks back in August. “If you’re going to come here, you have to come here legally. But if you’re here illegal, we’re not going to grant you amnesty.”
While Ogles has appeared on conservative talk shows, he’s mainly avoided speaking to other news media or on a debate stage.
Campbell’s campaign manager Beth Joslin Roth says they’ve been trying to have a debate with Ogles.
“Unfortunately, every single candidate or candidate debate that we have been invited to has not materialized, apparently due to the lack of responsiveness or availability of our opponent, which is frustrating,” said Joslin Roth.
Political science professor Pacelle says the strategy to avoid debates or media interviews isn’t new.
“This has been a constant thing for a couple of years. But it’s really being implemented this year sort of widespread for the first time,” Pacelle said. “The whole strategy the Republicans have used for a while is trying to pit different things against each other and say, ‘The election was stolen. The media doesn’t want us to win. They are trying to undermine us,’ etc. We’re not going to contribute to that.”
WPLN and other news outlets have reached out to Ogles about the 5th district race, but he hasn’t responded to those media requests.
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