Tuesday’s special congressional election could be a much tighter race than anticipated.
Republicans swept Tennessee’s 7th congressional district by 22 points last year, but polling by Emerson College finds that only two points separate Democrat Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps. Van Epps leads 48% to Behn’s 46%, the poll found, while 5% of respondents were undecided.
Female voters and voters under the age of 40 prefer Behn, the Emerson poll found, while Van Epps performed better with men and older voters.
John Geer, Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University and co-director of the Vanderbilt Poll, said he’s skeptical of polling in a race with such a short runway. However, he sees other indicators that the 7th district is more competitive this year.
“You have the Republicans pouring money in along with the Democrats, which suggests … the Republicans think there’s some chance they could lose, and the Democrats think there’s some chance they could win,” Geer said.
Who is Republican candidate Matt Van Epps?
- An Ohio native and West Point graduate, Van Epps served nine tours in Afghanistan and Iraq as a combat helicopter pilot.
- For nearly a decade, Van Epps has served as a Tennessee bureaucrat, first in the Department of Veteran’s Services under Gov. Bill Haslam and then under the Department of Transportation under Gov. Bill Lee.
- He resigned from the Department of General Services this summer to run for Congress.
- President Donald Trump endorsed Van Epps late into the primary election, but Van Epps benefited from early endorsements by Gov. Bill Lee and former U.S. Congressman Mark Green, who Van Epps is running to replace.
Who is Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn?
- A Tennessee native originally from Knoxville, Behn currently represents Nashville in the Tennessee House.
- She graduated from the University of Texas at Austin with a degree in social work.
- Before winning election in 2023, Behn was an activist, advocating against rural hospital closures and for the expansion of Medicaid.
- In 2019, she was arrested at the state Capitol while protesting the conduct of former Tennessee House Speaker Glen Casada, although the charges were ultimately dropped.
- As a lawmaker, Behn has focused on ending Tennessee’s grocery tax, which is the highest in the nation at 4%. Her proposed legislation would’ve instead taxed corporations based on their total revenue. Her proposal was met with a similar bill from Republicans, but both ultimately failed in session this year.
Counties in the 7th District
Tennessee’s 7th congressional district has been a Republican stronghold for decades. Incumbent Republican Mark Green has easily held onto the seat since 2019, even after redistricting incorporated parts of Democratic-leaning Nashville into the 7th district. The new maps span from Clarksville near the border with Kentucky down to Wayne County near the Alabama border.
Green’s surprise retirement this summer has left the seat open for newcomers.
The district, long been considered “solidly Republican,” has been given a new rating by nonpartisan groups like the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. The latter now rates Tennessee’s 7th district as “leans Republican.”
Last year, Green’s re-election campaign hardly acknowledged his Democratic opponent, former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, but Van Epps and national Republicans have attacked Behn, calling her a “woke liberal.”
“Both sides are going at each other,” Geer said. “Van Epps has changed his message. He’s no longer just the candidate of Trump. He’s now the candidate who wants to bring down costs and protect Tennessee from this liberal Democratic nominee.”
No matter who wins, Geer said, this competition is good for the state’s democracy.
“Competition keeps both parties responsive and honest, and we need more of it,” Geer said. “It forces the candidates to respond to each other, it informs the electorate, and Tennessee has been missing that over the last decade or so.”
Where and when to vote
Election Day is Tuesday, Dec. 2. You can find out if you’re part of the 7th District on the Secretary of State’s database. From there, you can also check if your registration is current and your assigned polling site.
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